苹果掉队又何妨

Q168

一篇消息来源单一的文章，说的还是10个月后可能发生的事情，居然也能成为新闻，也只有关于苹果公司（Apple）才有这样的魅力。



    本周一，彭博社有报道称，据“知情人士”透露，苹果正在开发采用可弯曲和柔性材料的大屏手机。而三星（Samsung）和LG公司一个已经有柔性屏手机上市，另一个正计划上市此类手机。消息引得人们议论纷纷，说苹果已经落在了竞争对手的后头。英国《每日邮报》（Daily Mail）对此发表长篇评论文章，并配上了夺人眼球的标题，质疑“苹果（是否）在跟随潮流”，唯竞争对手马首是瞻。

Only with Apple could a single-sourced article about something that might happen 10 months from now be news.



    Bloomberg published a story Monday that said that, according to a "person familiar with the plans," Apple (AAPL) is developing larger-screened phones that use curved and flexible materials. Samsung and LG either already have such phones in the market or plan to, so this unleashed a torrent of talk around the notion that Apple has fallen behind the competition. The Daily Mail had as good a write-up as any on the subject, complete with an attention-getting headline wondering if "Apple is jumping on the bandwagon" driven by its peers.

Q168

我认为，这些报道要么言之过早，要么根本不实，或者两者兼而有之，特别是鉴于这些报道中提到的产品据说还要有好几个月才会面市。（诸位应该还记得当时关于iWatch的报道吧？）有捕风捉影之嫌的独家新闻可能是好的新闻报道，特别是假如它涉及的是全球举足轻重的企业。不论对于果粉还是苹果公司的竞争者来说，关于苹果的片言只语都很重要。希望成为苹果公司供应商的企业需要这个信息，即便是错误的信息，也会使它们对潜在的业务保持高度警惕。
   My take is that these reports—especially when they are published many months before the products in question are supposed to arrive to market—are either early or wrong or both. (Remember the iWatch?) Micro-scoops can be fine journalism, especially when the subject is one of the world's most important companies. Every data point on Apple matters, both to enthusiasts and competitions. Wanna-be suppliers need this information, and even wrong information puts them on high alert for potential business.
但因此就认定苹果被竞争对手抢占了先机，或者说苹果正在模仿竞争对手某种才刚刚面世、根本未成气候的产品，那可就贻笑大方了。
But it is silly to suggest that Apple is behind the curve or playing me-too on something that barely exists, much less at scale.

Q168

事实上，苹果一直不是冲在最前面的那个人。（别忘了，苹果推出iPod的时候，“MP3播放器”已经是一个很成熟的产品类别了。）苹果公司随大流？没错。苹果跟风模仿？那可未必。苹果推出iPhone时，RIM与诺基亚（Nokia）正在智能手机领域做得风生水起。而苹果推出iPad时，平板电脑也已经出现好几年了。每一次，苹果都是后发制人，推出与众不同的产品。
In fact, Apple always is behind the curve. (Let us remember that the "MP3 player" was a well established product category when the iPod came along.) Jumping on the bandwagon? Guilty as charged. A me-too product? Not so much. Research in Motion and Nokia had a robust business in smartphones when the iPhone came along. Tablet computers had been manufactured for years before the iPad made its entrance. In each case, Apple came out with its iteration when it decided it had something unique to offer.
苹果有没有可能跟在三星后面推出某类产品？当然有可能。有没有可能苹果已经失去了往日那种惊人的创新能力？这也有可能。但是，单凭一篇援引某位知情人士的一面之词，而且说的还是差不多要再过一年才会推出的产品，我们就能断定苹果大势已去吗？我看未必。Is it possible that Apple will jump on a bandwagon led by Samsung? Sure. And is it possible that Apple's days of breathtaking innovation are behind it? Yes again. But is an article that cites one "person" with knowledge of something nearly a year from fruition evidence of the apocalypse? I'm afraid not.